Carlsen - Caruana Match: Balance Maintained After Game 10

The score is 5-5.

Sharing his impressions with our website is grandmaster Nikita Vitiugov:

– What are your impressions of the match? With someone criticizing opponents for many draws, someone claiming the highest level chess, whose side are you on?

– On the one hand, many draws is a trademark of chess. It is explained by the highly solid play, opening preparation and tough defensive skills. In a sense, it contributes to establishing a negative image of chess as a non-spectacular sport. But for whom? For the most part, this is about people not especially interested in chess anyway. Do we need to try involve them in chess in the first place? This is not an easy question to answer. Well, the answer is yes as it is desirable to cover as much audience as possible, but not to the detriment of chess content.

It probably makes sense to think about introducing certain changes.  I like the proposal that came up after game twelve of the match in New York: carrying out a tie-break before the match to determine a winner in case of 6:6. It reminds of the blitz tournament practice, introduced five years ago in lieu of the drawing of lots.

They write about Carlsen's proposal to extend the match up to 16 or 18 games. History repeats itself, they say, and something as simple as such extension might be a key to the problem. 

As for my impressions, I have expected more since it is for the first time in quite a while that the contest is about practically equal rivals - it is definitely about No.1 and No.2 in the world challenging each other right now. However, our expectations are our problems, as they say. All in all, the higher the level of opponents, the less spectacular is a tournament on many occasions due to extreme resilience, opening knowledge, unwillingness of opponents to take risks, etc., while the events with a mixed lineup, such as matches with a clear favorite, tend to be more intriguing.

– What is your take on today's encounter? Indeed, at some moment it felt like a draw was the most unlikely outcome.

– A weird game indeed. White seems to have seized the opening initiative, but a pair of apparently human decisions (19.Bh5, provoking g6, was worth giving a consideration) landed Caruana into a very unpleasant position. It is hard to tell without analyzing first, but Black's position seemed promising from the practical point of view. There followed simplifications (25...Bh3 - f3 to prevent Bf1 is worth mentioning as a tempting idea), and the game transposed into a major-piece endgame. It gave way to the endgame that proved not so equal as it might seem at first glance. Carlsen was pressing, but going into the second time control he committed an amazing error 44...Kd4?. It feels like White failed to put his opponent up against as much pressure as possible.

– Do you think we are in for the fighting finish in the classical part of the match, or will the final games be trademarked by cautious play, as in New York?

– I do not see a clear favorite. Any scenario will have its explanation, but Caruana's victory intuitively feels more logical. I mean, more logical to me. Two dry draws and Carlsen’s routine victory in a tiebreak is also subject to its own logic.

Previous games give you some background information, but will unlikely affect the two remaining ones. There is no anyone's superiority here, which advances to the forefront such features as psychological and physical fitness, an ability to maintain high level of play in the face of enormous weight of the game. Carlsen's super-ambitiousness, as well as desire to be the best in everything as not allowing him to lose the tie-breaks, can give him an additional 0.5% edge in this situation.

Going into the previous match, Carlsen was a big favorite, enjoying an absolute comfort up until game eight, in which he seems to have lost his sense of danger. Having equalized the score by a miracle, he, in fact, took several days of preparation for a tie-break, since in that match Karjakin was fighting for equality with both colors. This match is no longer an easy walk in the park for the champion. Therefore, the New York scenario is to be ruled out. Two draws are still the most likely outcome of these games for that matter.

– Is Carlsen’s being a tie-break favorite as undisputed as the experts claim? Caruana's rapid and blitz ratings around 2800 seem quite adequate.

– If I were to bet my money for the tie-break outcome, I would put it on Magnus.

All in all, I think a tiebreak for the world champion’s title is too unique an event to have any bearing on the upcoming rapid games between these two opponents, if it ever comes to that. Of extreme importance is that it is your day, and not that of your opponent. It is important to be up and running at the moment, within these particular 4-6 hours, so that anyone else’s ratings or expert opinions matter not at all.

I may sound like a broken record, but my preferences for the rapid section are with Carlsen. The moment of truth for Caruana is game twelve, as seen from today’s perspective. 

On the other hand, it has been so often the case now that, being in a situation like this, the first player considers himself obliged to take risks, and, not coping with the pressure and overcommitting himself, he stops playing chess and begins "ruling the fate of the world." This whole story is very speculative, however. Rather than contemplating everything mentioned above, Caruana will just play chess, most likely.

– Which world championship match is the most meaningful for you?Can we expect the 2020 contest to give us more decisive games, or will the current format of the event go on dictating the cautious match strategy as we see it now?

– As for the match, it is either Baguio, or one of the those between Karpov and Kasparov; perhaps the first, the unfinished one, which makes it absolutely unique. However, if I have to choose, the choice is simple: I studied personally from Viktor Lvovich, while I happened to see Kasparov in person once in my life only. It makes it Baguio for that reason.

– It is unthinkable to imagine Carlsen and Caruana playing all the way to 6 wins!

– I wish Carlsen scored in game one - it would have been a totally different match. From a certain moment on, Caruana could start uncorking something like Blumenfeld or Dutch as Black, as well as something live, but, naturally, risky as White. As for this viscous fight, all of us have been through it many times - yes, it is about quality and tough chess, but all this has already happened, even if not between these two particular opponents. 

In general, I tend to think that modern chess is such that the probability of a tie-break with the current format in place in a match of 12 games is very high. I do not know what betting offices have to say about is, but, in my opinion, the 6:6 score looks like a clear favorite over any other possible outcome before the start of the match.

Questions by Dmitry Kryakvin